Climatological mean for KSEA on April 29 sits at 59.8°F. Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble medians are consistently projecting thermal advection, elevating 70th percentile probabilities above 60°F, indicating a high likelihood of exceeding the 59°F upper bound. The synoptic pattern shows limited marine push inhibition. This makes the 58-59°F window too restrictive. 90% NO — invalid if mid-range HRRR shifts significantly below 58°F by T-24.
Climatological mean for KSEA on April 29 sits at 59.8°F. Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble medians are consistently projecting thermal advection, elevating 70th percentile probabilities above 60°F, indicating a high likelihood of exceeding the 59°F upper bound. The synoptic pattern shows limited marine push inhibition. This makes the 58-59°F window too restrictive. 90% NO — invalid if mid-range HRRR shifts significantly below 58°F by T-24.
