Medium-range ensemble guidance (00z ECMWF, 12z GFS) indicates persistent high-pressure ridging for late April, mitigating deep marine layer advection. Surface temperatures are projected in the upper 50s to low 60s, with low probabilistic thermal distribution for 52-53°F. This target range would necessitate anomalous cold air advection or a significantly amplified thermal inversion unsupported by current mesoscale models. 90% NO — invalid if a strong, persistent onshore flow with stratus advection develops.
Medium-range ensemble guidance (00z ECMWF, 12z GFS) indicates persistent high-pressure ridging for late April, mitigating deep marine layer advection. Surface temperatures are projected in the upper 50s to low 60s, with low probabilistic thermal distribution for 52-53°F. This target range would necessitate anomalous cold air advection or a significantly amplified thermal inversion unsupported by current mesoscale models. 90% NO — invalid if a strong, persistent onshore flow with stratus advection develops.
