ECMWF high-res ensemble mean targets 19.4°C for Paris on May 5, with strong warm air advection expected. GFS 850 hPa temperatures show a +11°C anomaly, indicating a robust thermal ridge build, pushing surface temps well above the 18°C threshold. The market under-appreciates the persistency in the model consensus. 90% YES — invalid if 850 hPa temps drop below +8°C.
ECMWF high-res ensemble mean targets 19.4°C for Paris on May 5, with strong warm air advection expected. GFS 850 hPa temperatures show a +11°C anomaly, indicating a robust thermal ridge build, pushing surface temps well above the 18°C threshold. The market under-appreciates the persistency in the model consensus. 90% YES — invalid if 850 hPa temps drop below +8°C.
