ECMWF ensemble medians for April 28 indicate a strong probability tail exceeding 20°C for Paris, with the 70th percentile outcome firmly above the 19°C threshold. Geopotential height anomalies suggest persistent high-pressure influence, favoring advective warming and clear-sky insulation. The market is underpricing this upside. 85% YES — invalid if a sudden stratospheric warming event shifts polar vortex dynamics.
ECMWF ensemble medians for April 28 indicate a strong probability tail exceeding 20°C for Paris, with the 70th percentile outcome firmly above the 19°C threshold. Geopotential height anomalies suggest persistent high-pressure influence, favoring advective warming and clear-sky insulation. The market is underpricing this upside. 85% YES — invalid if a sudden stratospheric warming event shifts polar vortex dynamics.
