Current GFS 06z and ECMWF 00z runs show strong consensus for an LGA high of 62-63°F on May 6th. Surface analysis indicates a trailing cool sector behind a departing trough, with insufficient insolation suppression to hold temperatures within the 60-61°F window. The prevailing synoptic pattern mitigates against a downside deviation to the specified range. This constitutes a clear miss. 85% NO — invalid if NBM probabilistic guidance for 60-61°F exceeds 40% by EOD May 5th.
Current GFS 06z and ECMWF 00z runs show strong consensus for an LGA high of 62-63°F on May 6th. Surface analysis indicates a trailing cool sector behind a departing trough, with insufficient insolation suppression to hold temperatures within the 60-61°F window. The prevailing synoptic pattern mitigates against a downside deviation to the specified range. This constitutes a clear miss. 85% NO — invalid if NBM probabilistic guidance for 60-61°F exceeds 40% by EOD May 5th.
