GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs are aligning, forecasting robust warm air advection over the Tri-State. The 850mb temps are projected to rise, supporting boundary layer mixing that will push peak surface observations into the low 60s. A transient surface high provides sufficient subsidence, allowing for stronger insolation. The 58-59°F range is too conservative for the diurnal high, firmly negating a sub-60s ceiling. 90% NO — invalid if frontal passage accelerates beyond current model consensus.
GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs are aligning, forecasting robust warm air advection over the Tri-State. The 850mb temps are projected to rise, supporting boundary layer mixing that will push peak surface observations into the low 60s. A transient surface high provides sufficient subsidence, allowing for stronger insolation. The 58-59°F range is too conservative for the diurnal high, firmly negating a sub-60s ceiling. 90% NO — invalid if frontal passage accelerates beyond current model consensus.
