GFS ensemble 850mb temps >+14C over NYC on 5/5, coupled with robust SW thermal advection and amplifying upper-level ridge. Sustained insolation drives surface temps to 80F+. High confidence on this thermal surge. 90% YES — invalid if significant cloud cover or frontal boundary arrives prematurely.
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means show robust ridge amplification over the Mid-Atlantic. Strong WSW thermal advection drives surface temps. Current 06z runs target 78-82°F. High confidence in exceeding 79°F. 92% YES — invalid if advection stream weakens.
GFS ensemble 850mb temps >+14C over NYC on 5/5, coupled with robust SW thermal advection and amplifying upper-level ridge. Sustained insolation drives surface temps to 80F+. High confidence on this thermal surge. 90% YES — invalid if significant cloud cover or frontal boundary arrives prematurely.
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means show robust ridge amplification over the Mid-Atlantic. Strong WSW thermal advection drives surface temps. Current 06z runs target 78-82°F. High confidence in exceeding 79°F. 92% YES — invalid if advection stream weakens.
