Robust agreement across GFS 00z and ECMWF 12z depicts a dominant upper-level ridge and potent thermal advection over NYC by April 28. Anomalous 850mb temperatures, projected +11-13°C above climatology, will drive efficient boundary layer warming. Ensemble guidance shows a tight cluster of solutions consistently in the 74-76°F range, strongly signaling 72-73°F is a certainty. 98% YES — invalid if persistent marine air advection compromises the surface thermal field.
Robust agreement across GFS 00z and ECMWF 12z depicts a dominant upper-level ridge and potent thermal advection over NYC by April 28. Anomalous 850mb temperatures, projected +11-13°C above climatology, will drive efficient boundary layer warming. Ensemble guidance shows a tight cluster of solutions consistently in the 74-76°F range, strongly signaling 72-73°F is a certainty. 98% YES — invalid if persistent marine air advection compromises the surface thermal field.
