ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs show 24-26°C for May 6. Ensemble centroid at 25°C with tight spread. Strong thermal advection under a robust ridge. Clear signal for exceeding the threshold. 95% YES — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts unexpectedly.
ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs show 24-26°C for May 6. Ensemble centroid at 25°C with tight spread. Strong thermal advection under a robust ridge. Clear signal for exceeding the threshold. 95% YES — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts unexpectedly.