ECMWF's 00Z deterministic operational run for Munich on April 29 pegs the high at 13°C, signaling a sub-14°C outcome. While the GFS shows a divergent 15°C, the consensus ensemble mean sits at 13.8°C with strong support for slight cold advection under a passing shortwave trough. This thermal profile suggests a definitive dip below the threshold. 80% NO — invalid if subsequent 12Z model runs show >1K positive anomaly shift.
ECMWF's 00Z deterministic operational run for Munich on April 29 pegs the high at 13°C, signaling a sub-14°C outcome. While the GFS shows a divergent 15°C, the consensus ensemble mean sits at 13.8°C with strong support for slight cold advection under a passing shortwave trough. This thermal profile suggests a definitive dip below the threshold. 80% NO — invalid if subsequent 12Z model runs show >1K positive anomaly shift.
