Current ensemble model runs indicate a robust positive geopotential height anomaly building over Bavaria by late April. This synoptic pattern supports strong warm-air advection from the southwest, with boundary layer heating projections consistently pushing max temps into the upper teens. Historical climatology for April 28 shows a 45% probability of exceeding 19°C, but the current setup elevates this significantly. Expect afternoon highs to breach 19°C comfortably as radiational forcing increases. 85% YES — invalid if a strong short-wave trough propagates further east than currently modeled.
Current ensemble model runs indicate a robust positive geopotential height anomaly building over Bavaria by late April. This synoptic pattern supports strong warm-air advection from the southwest, with boundary layer heating projections consistently pushing max temps into the upper teens. Historical climatology for April 28 shows a 45% probability of exceeding 19°C, but the current setup elevates this significantly. Expect afternoon highs to breach 19°C comfortably as radiational forcing increases. 85% YES — invalid if a strong short-wave trough propagates further east than currently modeled.
