ECMWF and GFS ensemble medians for Milan on April 29 project daily highs firmly in the 20-22°C range. This robustly signals a strong positive 850 hPa temperature anomaly, driven by southerly advection and elevated geopotential heights. The 16°C threshold is well below even the lower bounds of the probabilistic distribution from leading NWP models. A high below 16°C is effectively a non-event. 95% NO — invalid if a significant cold front shifts pre-market close.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble medians for Milan on April 29 project daily highs firmly in the 20-22°C range. This robustly signals a strong positive 850 hPa temperature anomaly, driven by southerly advection and elevated geopotential heights. The 16°C threshold is well below even the lower bounds of the probabilistic distribution from leading NWP models. A high below 16°C is effectively a non-event. 95% NO — invalid if a significant cold front shifts pre-market close.
