ECMWF and GFS 00z ensembles indicate strong thermal advection, pushing 850mb temps >20C by May 5. While 87-89°F remains the modal outcome for MIA, operational runs show sufficient surface subsidence and delayed sea breeze penetration to breach the 90°F isotherm. Ridging aloft creates a favorable environment for this specific thermal band, pushing the daily max into contention. Sentiment: Local NWS discussions highlight increasing heat index. 80% YES — invalid if early sea breeze or frontal passage.
ECMWF and GFS 00z ensembles indicate strong thermal advection, pushing 850mb temps >20C by May 5. While 87-89°F remains the modal outcome for MIA, operational runs show sufficient surface subsidence and delayed sea breeze penetration to breach the 90°F isotherm. Ridging aloft creates a favorable environment for this specific thermal band, pushing the daily max into contention. Sentiment: Local NWS discussions highlight increasing heat index. 80% YES — invalid if early sea breeze or frontal passage.
