ECMWF and GFS ensemble means for May 5th consistently project Miami highs in the 83-85°F range. Strong 850mb thermal advection, coupled with surface dew points in the low 70s, will drive boundary layer mixing to push temperatures well above 81°F. The market is underpricing this upward thermal bias. Expect a higher peak. 90% NO — invalid if a strong, persistent onshore flow develops before noon, significantly limiting solar insolation.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble means for May 5th consistently project Miami highs in the 83-85°F range. Strong 850mb thermal advection, coupled with surface dew points in the low 70s, will drive boundary layer mixing to push temperatures well above 81°F. The market is underpricing this upward thermal bias. Expect a higher peak. 90% NO — invalid if a strong, persistent onshore flow develops before noon, significantly limiting solar insolation.
