GFS 06Z run projects a robust thermal ridge over South Florida by April 28th, driving significant 850mb warm advection. Surface analysis indicates a weak pressure gradient and dominant offshore flow, severely curtailing the typical afternoon sea breeze and enabling prolonged daytime insolation. The 10-day ensemble mean for MIA is 87°F, with considerable spread to 89°F, suggesting high likelihood of the target range. 95% YES — invalid if a significant frontal boundary or persistent cloud deck develops.
NWS Miami forecast indicates 87°F. ECMWF consensus shows robust ridging and sustained thermal advection pushing to 88°F. High probability of hitting the range. 85% YES — invalid if unexpected pre-frontal convection limits diurnal heating.
GFS 06Z run projects a robust thermal ridge over South Florida by April 28th, driving significant 850mb warm advection. Surface analysis indicates a weak pressure gradient and dominant offshore flow, severely curtailing the typical afternoon sea breeze and enabling prolonged daytime insolation. The 10-day ensemble mean for MIA is 87°F, with considerable spread to 89°F, suggesting high likelihood of the target range. 95% YES — invalid if a significant frontal boundary or persistent cloud deck develops.
NWS Miami forecast indicates 87°F. ECMWF consensus shows robust ridging and sustained thermal advection pushing to 88°F. High probability of hitting the range. 85% YES — invalid if unexpected pre-frontal convection limits diurnal heating.
