Mexico City's April climatological mean high hovers around 26-27°C. A 14°C high on April 27 represents an extreme negative departure from this established norm, requiring an anomalous persistent cold air advection pattern or severe frontal passage. Current long-range ensemble models show no such significant synoptic pattern favoring sub-15°C daytime highs. The probability of such a severe cold snap is negligible. 98% NO — invalid if a major, unforecasted polar vortex breakdown directly impacts Central Mexico.
Mexico City's April climatological mean high hovers around 26-27°C. A 14°C high on April 27 represents an extreme negative departure from this established norm, requiring an anomalous persistent cold air advection pattern or severe frontal passage. Current long-range ensemble models show no such significant synoptic pattern favoring sub-15°C daytime highs. The probability of such a severe cold snap is negligible. 98% NO — invalid if a major, unforecasted polar vortex breakdown directly impacts Central Mexico.
