Synoptic analysis indicates persistent high-pressure aloft, locking in extreme insolation over Luzon. Current actuals for late April 2024 show daily max temperatures consistently exceeding 36°C across Metro Manila, with a 38°C reading recorded just days prior. ECMWF and GFS ensembles project a high probability of thermal anomaly persistence, with surface temperatures frequently hitting 37°C, or higher, through the forecast period. The market is underpricing this established heat dome. 95% YES — invalid if a significant cool front or persistent cloud cover anomaly disrupts the regional thermal pattern before April 28.
Synoptic analysis indicates persistent high-pressure aloft, locking in extreme insolation over Luzon. Current actuals for late April 2024 show daily max temperatures consistently exceeding 36°C across Metro Manila, with a 38°C reading recorded just days prior. ECMWF and GFS ensembles project a high probability of thermal anomaly persistence, with surface temperatures frequently hitting 37°C, or higher, through the forecast period. The market is underpricing this established heat dome. 95% YES — invalid if a significant cool front or persistent cloud cover anomaly disrupts the regional thermal pattern before April 28.
