Madrid's May 5 climatological mean high is 21°C. ECMWF and GFS ensembles project a weak upper-level ridge, ensuring robust solar insolation and warm advection. Surface temperatures are modeled 22-25°C. A sub-17°C high requires a highly anomalous trough with persistent cold air intrusion, not seen in current operational runs. This is a strong 'yes'. 98% YES — invalid if a strong 500mb trough develops directly over Iberia.
Madrid's May 5 climatological mean high is 21°C. ECMWF and GFS ensembles project a weak upper-level ridge, ensuring robust solar insolation and warm advection. Surface temperatures are modeled 22-25°C. A sub-17°C high requires a highly anomalous trough with persistent cold air intrusion, not seen in current operational runs. This is a strong 'yes'. 98% YES — invalid if a strong 500mb trough develops directly over Iberia.
