ECMWF ensemble median forecasts for April 29 project significant 850 hPa geopotential height anomalies over Iberia, indicating a robust anticyclonic ridge. This synoptic pattern drives strong thermal advection from North Africa, pushing surface temperatures well above the climatological mean. GFS output concurs, consistently showing 2m temperatures peaking near 25-27°C in Madrid. Insolation under clear skies will further amplify this warming trend. The 23°C threshold is highly conservative given current model consensus. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden deep upper-level trough disrupts the ridging.
ECMWF ensemble median forecasts for April 29 project significant 850 hPa geopotential height anomalies over Iberia, indicating a robust anticyclonic ridge. This synoptic pattern drives strong thermal advection from North Africa, pushing surface temperatures well above the climatological mean. GFS output concurs, consistently showing 2m temperatures peaking near 25-27°C in Madrid. Insolation under clear skies will further amplify this warming trend. The 23°C threshold is highly conservative given current model consensus. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden deep upper-level trough disrupts the ridging.
