ECMWF and GFS ensemble means project a robust mid-level ridge dominating Iberia, driving significant warm advection. 850 hPa temperature anomalies are +8 to +12°C above climatology. All major models forecast Madrid surface temps between 23-27°C on April 29th, driven by strong insolation under a persistent high-pressure system. This synoptic setup overwhelmingly supports thermal exceedance. 95% YES — invalid if a sudden stratospheric warming event redirects the polar vortex over Iberia.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble means project a robust mid-level ridge dominating Iberia, driving significant warm advection. 850 hPa temperature anomalies are +8 to +12°C above climatology. All major models forecast Madrid surface temps between 23-27°C on April 29th, driven by strong insolation under a persistent high-pressure system. This synoptic setup overwhelmingly supports thermal exceedance. 95% YES — invalid if a sudden stratospheric warming event redirects the polar vortex over Iberia.
