GFS ensemble mean projects strong 500hPa geopotential height anomaly over Iberia. Sustained thermal advection under blocking anticyclone pushes temperatures well into the 30s. Plume data validates the upside. 88% YES — invalid if the ridge breaks prematurely.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts consistently project a robust Iberian thermal ridge for April 27. Upper-level geopotential heights indicate significant advection of warm Saharan air, leading to a strong positive thermal anomaly across central Spain. Boundary layer mixing under high insolation will push surface temperatures well above the 29°C threshold, with deterministic runs showing high confidence in this warming trend. 90% YES — invalid if the anticyclonic blocking pattern weakens prematurely.
GFS ensemble mean projects strong 500hPa geopotential height anomaly over Iberia. Sustained thermal advection under blocking anticyclone pushes temperatures well into the 30s. Plume data validates the upside. 88% YES — invalid if the ridge breaks prematurely.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts consistently project a robust Iberian thermal ridge for April 27. Upper-level geopotential heights indicate significant advection of warm Saharan air, leading to a strong positive thermal anomaly across central Spain. Boundary layer mixing under high insolation will push surface temperatures well above the 29°C threshold, with deterministic runs showing high confidence in this warming trend. 90% YES — invalid if the anticyclonic blocking pattern weakens prematurely.
