Synoptic analysis indicates a persistent, anomalous mid-tropospheric ridge over the Indo-Gangetic plain through early May, driving significant subsidence. Coupled with unimpeded solar insolation and strong westerly thermal advection, GFS/ECMWF ensemble means consistently project surface maxima exceeding 45°C. The absence of any significant Western Disturbances precludes any cooling relief. This thermal regime strongly favors extreme daytime heating. [95]% YES — invalid if significant pre-monsoon rain occurs within 24 hours of May 6th.
Synoptic analysis indicates a persistent, anomalous mid-tropospheric ridge over the Indo-Gangetic plain through early May, driving significant subsidence. Coupled with unimpeded solar insolation and strong westerly thermal advection, GFS/ECMWF ensemble means consistently project surface maxima exceeding 45°C. The absence of any significant Western Disturbances precludes any cooling relief. This thermal regime strongly favors extreme daytime heating. [95]% YES — invalid if significant pre-monsoon rain occurs within 24 hours of May 6th.
