ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs consistently show 850 hPa isotherms pushing well above 25°C for Lucknow on April 29. A persistent anticyclonic ridge dominates the synoptic pattern, fostering strong subsidence warming and clear-sky insolation. This will drive boundary layer temperatures significantly past 37°C, exacerbated by urban heat island amplification. The climatological probability of breaching this threshold in late April is extremely high, with adiabatic compression forecasts indicating 39-40°C. 95% NO — invalid if a significant western disturbance advects cooler air.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs consistently show 850 hPa isotherms pushing well above 25°C for Lucknow on April 29. A persistent anticyclonic ridge dominates the synoptic pattern, fostering strong subsidence warming and clear-sky insolation. This will drive boundary layer temperatures significantly past 37°C, exacerbated by urban heat island amplification. The climatological probability of breaching this threshold in late April is extremely high, with adiabatic compression forecasts indicating 39-40°C. 95% NO — invalid if a significant western disturbance advects cooler air.
