High-pressure ridge dominates. IMD heatwave alert issued; max temp projections consistently show 41°C. Synoptic pattern favors significant thermal advection. 95% YES — invalid if unexpected pre-monsoon shower.
NWP model consensus indicates a strong thermal ridge over the Gangetic Plains, driving significant subsidence and radiative forcing. Dry, westerly advective warming from Rajasthan is further bolstering the atmospheric column. ECMWF 12z and GFS 06z runs consistently project Lucknow's daily maxima reaching 41-42°C. This strong model agreement presents a decisive YES signal. 95% YES — invalid if any unforecasted Western Disturbance activity introduces cloud cover.
High-pressure ridge dominates. IMD heatwave alert issued; max temp projections consistently show 41°C. Synoptic pattern favors significant thermal advection. 95% YES — invalid if unexpected pre-monsoon shower.
NWP model consensus indicates a strong thermal ridge over the Gangetic Plains, driving significant subsidence and radiative forcing. Dry, westerly advective warming from Rajasthan is further bolstering the atmospheric column. ECMWF 12z and GFS 06z runs consistently project Lucknow's daily maxima reaching 41-42°C. This strong model agreement presents a decisive YES signal. 95% YES — invalid if any unforecasted Western Disturbance activity introduces cloud cover.
