ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance consistently pegs London's May 5th high between 16-17°C. A persistent cyclonic flow across the North Atlantic is driving cooler, moist air, preventing any significant thermal advection. Surface pressure gradients indicate no blocking high to promote warmer conditions. The current synoptic setup shows low probability for exceeding the 18°C threshold. 85% NO — invalid if upper-air ridging intensifies unexpectedly.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance consistently pegs London's May 5th high between 16-17°C. A persistent cyclonic flow across the North Atlantic is driving cooler, moist air, preventing any significant thermal advection. Surface pressure gradients indicate no blocking high to promote warmer conditions. The current synoptic setup shows low probability for exceeding the 18°C threshold. 85% NO — invalid if upper-air ridging intensifies unexpectedly.
