ECMWF/GFS ensembles average 17°C for late April; no robust thermal advection or significant positive geopotential height anomaly projecting 21°C. This is a 90th percentile event requiring sustained southerly flow, currently absent. 90% NO — invalid if mid-range models show persistent ridging by April 26.
ECMWF/GFS ensembles average 17°C for late April; no robust thermal advection or significant positive geopotential height anomaly projecting 21°C. This is a 90th percentile event requiring sustained southerly flow, currently absent. 90% NO — invalid if mid-range models show persistent ridging by April 26.
