Lagos's mean maximum temp for early May is 32.5°C, but current GFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate a high probability (70%+) of daytime maxima reaching 34-36°C on May 5th. Strong insolation and a sustained continental airmass override typical maritime moderation. Thermal gradient suggests an upward push. This is a clear signal for exceeding the 34°C mark. 90% YES — invalid if significant convective system develops unexpectedly.
Lagos's mean maximum temp for early May is 32.5°C, but current GFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate a high probability (70%+) of daytime maxima reaching 34-36°C on May 5th. Strong insolation and a sustained continental airmass override typical maritime moderation. Thermal gradient suggests an upward push. This is a clear signal for exceeding the 34°C mark. 90% YES — invalid if significant convective system develops unexpectedly.
