Jeddah's climatological mean for early May consistently pushes past 36°C. Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble agreement for May 5 shows a high probability plume exceeding 37°C, with multiple operational runs touching 39°C. A deepening thermal trough over the region, coupled with clear-sky insolation under a stable upper-level ridge, will drive extreme surface heating. No significant advective cooling is forecast. This setup strongly favors a breach of the threshold. 95% YES — invalid if unexpected coastal fog persists past 1100 UTC.
Jeddah's climatological mean for early May consistently pushes past 36°C. Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble agreement for May 5 shows a high probability plume exceeding 37°C, with multiple operational runs touching 39°C. A deepening thermal trough over the region, coupled with clear-sky insolation under a stable upper-level ridge, will drive extreme surface heating. No significant advective cooling is forecast. This setup strongly favors a breach of the threshold. 95% YES — invalid if unexpected coastal fog persists past 1100 UTC.
