ECMWF/GFS ensemble means target 18-20°C highs for May 5. Strong positive thermal advection, no deep troughing. 10°C is an extreme cold anomaly. Overwhelming NO signal. 99% NO — invalid if unexpected deep low pressure system establishes ~9°C advection.
Climatological normals for Istanbul in early May are 20°C. ECMWF ensemble models show a <5% chance of max temp below 10°C on May 5. This is a severe cold thermal anomaly. 95% NO — invalid if major polar vortex disruption occurs.
ECMWF/GFS ensemble means target 18-20°C highs for May 5. Strong positive thermal advection, no deep troughing. 10°C is an extreme cold anomaly. Overwhelming NO signal. 99% NO — invalid if unexpected deep low pressure system establishes ~9°C advection.
Climatological normals for Istanbul in early May are 20°C. ECMWF ensemble models show a <5% chance of max temp below 10°C on May 5. This is a severe cold thermal anomaly. 95% NO — invalid if major polar vortex disruption occurs.
