Climatological normals for Houston in early May consistently show daily highs averaging above 80°F. Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance for May 5 projects robust warm advection under a persistent ridge, pushing surface temps well into the low 80s, potentially mid-80s. The 78°F threshold is significantly undervalued given current pattern evolution. Minimal frontal forcing expected. 95% YES — invalid if a strong, unforecasted polar vortex lobe dips south.
Climatological normals for Houston in early May consistently show daily highs averaging above 80°F. Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance for May 5 projects robust warm advection under a persistent ridge, pushing surface temps well into the low 80s, potentially mid-80s. The 78°F threshold is significantly undervalued given current pattern evolution. Minimal frontal forcing expected. 95% YES — invalid if a strong, unforecasted polar vortex lobe dips south.
