Current NWS CAMs and blended GFS/ECMWF ensembles position Houston's sensible thermal peak on April 29 squarely at 84°F, consistent with a strengthening upper-level ridge. Boundary layer mixing under clear skies will support this ascent. The 84-85°F threshold is the mode of multiple model runs, indicating high confidence in achieving at least the lower bound. This is a clear signal to go long. 75% YES — invalid if a strong cold front boundary shifts south of the metro prior to 12Z.
Current NWS CAMs and blended GFS/ECMWF ensembles position Houston's sensible thermal peak on April 29 squarely at 84°F, consistent with a strengthening upper-level ridge. Boundary layer mixing under clear skies will support this ascent. The 84-85°F threshold is the mode of multiple model runs, indicating high confidence in achieving at least the lower bound. This is a clear signal to go long. 75% YES — invalid if a strong cold front boundary shifts south of the metro prior to 12Z.
