GFS/ECMWF consensus for April 29 positions 850mb thermal profiles at +11C over KHOU. This supports robust boundary layer mixing, pushing surface temperatures directly into the low-to-mid 70s under favorable solar insolation. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering, with a mean max temperature of 74.7°F. The lack of significant shortwave activity prevents disruptive cloud deck development. 95% YES — invalid if sustained E-NE flow develops, advecting cooler marine air.
GFS/ECMWF consensus for April 29 positions 850mb thermal profiles at +11C over KHOU. This supports robust boundary layer mixing, pushing surface temperatures directly into the low-to-mid 70s under favorable solar insolation. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering, with a mean max temperature of 74.7°F. The lack of significant shortwave activity prevents disruptive cloud deck development. 95% YES — invalid if sustained E-NE flow develops, advecting cooler marine air.
