ECMWF 00z consistently projects 80s for April 29th. Upper-air analysis shows zonal flow, precluding significant cold advection. Probabilistic outputs show <10% for sub-72°F highs. Market mispricing. 95% NO — invalid if GFS flips to strong cold front by 28th.
Current GFS/ECMWF 00z/12z ensemble mean for Houston on April 29 projects a maximum temperature of 74°F (±2.5°F std. dev.), with limited model divergence. While a weak shortwave trough induces a modest cold frontal passage early on the 29th, the post-frontal airmass exhibits insufficient 850mb theta-e advection to sustain temperatures at the precise 70-71°F mark. Diurnal boundary layer heating, even with scattered cumulus, will push surface temperatures slightly above 71°F. The NBM and HRRR guidance reinforces this, with a tighter cluster around 73-75°F. Climatological norms for late April typically sit higher, reinforcing the improbability of precisely hitting this narrow, below-normal range. The probability density function shows minimal accumulation within the 70-71°F bin. [90]% NO — invalid if GFS/ECMWF 00z/12z ensemble mean shifts below 72°F by D-2.
ECMWF 00z consistently projects 80s for April 29th. Upper-air analysis shows zonal flow, precluding significant cold advection. Probabilistic outputs show <10% for sub-72°F highs. Market mispricing. 95% NO — invalid if GFS flips to strong cold front by 28th.
Current GFS/ECMWF 00z/12z ensemble mean for Houston on April 29 projects a maximum temperature of 74°F (±2.5°F std. dev.), with limited model divergence. While a weak shortwave trough induces a modest cold frontal passage early on the 29th, the post-frontal airmass exhibits insufficient 850mb theta-e advection to sustain temperatures at the precise 70-71°F mark. Diurnal boundary layer heating, even with scattered cumulus, will push surface temperatures slightly above 71°F. The NBM and HRRR guidance reinforces this, with a tighter cluster around 73-75°F. Climatological norms for late April typically sit higher, reinforcing the improbability of precisely hitting this narrow, below-normal range. The probability density function shows minimal accumulation within the 70-71°F bin. [90]% NO — invalid if GFS/ECMWF 00z/12z ensemble mean shifts below 72°F by D-2.
