Deterministic model outputs from both 00Z GFS and ECMWF consistently project Houston's 4/29 surface high to penetrate the mid-70s. A robust upper-air ridge over the Gulf will drive warm-sector advection and efficient boundary layer mixing, making sub-70°F readings highly improbable. My internal ensemble analysis places the probability of a high at or below 69°F below 5%. 95% NO — invalid if an unforeseen arctic cold front manifests after the 12Z NAM run.
Deterministic model outputs from both 00Z GFS and ECMWF consistently project Houston's 4/29 surface high to penetrate the mid-70s. A robust upper-air ridge over the Gulf will drive warm-sector advection and efficient boundary layer mixing, making sub-70°F readings highly improbable. My internal ensemble analysis places the probability of a high at or below 69°F below 5%. 95% NO — invalid if an unforeseen arctic cold front manifests after the 12Z NAM run.
