NO. ECMWF operational run's TMAX and GFS 00z/12z deterministic runs consistently forecast TMAX values for KHOU in the 80-83°F window for April 28th. A robust 500mb ridge over the CONUS southeast will maintain persistent southerly advection, with minimal cloud cover and high solar insolation driving boundary layer heating well past the 79°F threshold. Climatological normals for late April indicate a mean daily max of 82.3°F at IAH, aligning with current model consensus for supra-79°F conditions. The probability density function for both HRES and ENS mean places the 78-79°F bin at <15% likelihood for the daily maximum, indicating strong negative skewness against this range. Sentiment: Local METAR reports and forecaster discussions are already locking in low-80s highs. 90% NO — invalid if a significant cold frontal passage is modeled with >50% probability within 48 hours of the event.
NWS Houston forecasts 80°F, but GFS ensemble guidance centers 79°F. Persistent ridging and warm advection point to precise boundary layer heating. This tightens the range to target. 85% YES — invalid if pre-frontal clouds persist.
NO. ECMWF operational run's TMAX and GFS 00z/12z deterministic runs consistently forecast TMAX values for KHOU in the 80-83°F window for April 28th. A robust 500mb ridge over the CONUS southeast will maintain persistent southerly advection, with minimal cloud cover and high solar insolation driving boundary layer heating well past the 79°F threshold. Climatological normals for late April indicate a mean daily max of 82.3°F at IAH, aligning with current model consensus for supra-79°F conditions. The probability density function for both HRES and ENS mean places the 78-79°F bin at <15% likelihood for the daily maximum, indicating strong negative skewness against this range. Sentiment: Local METAR reports and forecaster discussions are already locking in low-80s highs. 90% NO — invalid if a significant cold frontal passage is modeled with >50% probability within 48 hours of the event.
NWS Houston forecasts 80°F, but GFS ensemble guidance centers 79°F. Persistent ridging and warm advection point to precise boundary layer heating. This tightens the range to target. 85% YES — invalid if pre-frontal clouds persist.
