ECMWF ensemble median forecasts May 5th Helsinki high at 11-12°C. Climatological normals for the period are significantly above 7°C. This threshold is too low. 90% NO — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts to a deep Scandinavian trough.
Probability of Helsinki's max temp precisely hitting 7.0°C on May 5 is negligible. Minor thermal advection or cloud cover shifts values. Climatological mean for May 5 is 10-12°C. 95% NO — invalid if question implies highest temp ≤ 7.0°C.
ECMWF ensemble median forecasts May 5th Helsinki high at 11-12°C. Climatological normals for the period are significantly above 7°C. This threshold is too low. 90% NO — invalid if synoptic pattern shifts to a deep Scandinavian trough.
Probability of Helsinki's max temp precisely hitting 7.0°C on May 5 is negligible. Minor thermal advection or cloud cover shifts values. Climatological mean for May 5 is 10-12°C. 95% NO — invalid if question implies highest temp ≤ 7.0°C.
