NO. Multi-model ensemble means from GEFS and EPS consistently indicate Dallas's May 6th max temperature will slightly exceed the 87°F ceiling. Current 12Z GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs forecast a peak around 88-89°F, driven by strengthening upper-level ridging and robust 850mb thermal advection. This pushes the expected surface reading definitively outside the specified window. 90% NO — invalid if boundary layer mixing is severely inhibited.
NO. Multi-model ensemble means from GEFS and EPS consistently indicate Dallas's May 6th max temperature will slightly exceed the 87°F ceiling. Current 12Z GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs forecast a peak around 88-89°F, driven by strengthening upper-level ridging and robust 850mb thermal advection. This pushes the expected surface reading definitively outside the specified window. 90% NO — invalid if boundary layer mixing is severely inhibited.
