GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs are projecting strong warm advection pushing 850mb temps into the +18C to +20C range. This, coupled with robust boundary layer mixing under a developing mid-level ridge, strongly supports surface temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. Ensemble means are clustering around 88-89°F, tightening the thermal probability window. 90% YES — invalid if a significant pre-frontal trough passage occurs before peak diurnal heating.
Strong 12z GFS/ECMWF consensus: deep 500mb ridge over North Texas drives robust diurnal heating. Expecting peak temps 88-90°F, with minimal cloud cover. High confidence in target range. 95% YES — invalid if unexpected cold front accelerates.
GFS/ECMWF ensemble median holds 89°F for Dallas on April 28. Strong ridge building, robust thermal advection drives highs into the 88-90°F range. Optimal setup. 90% YES — invalid if cold front accelerates.
GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs are projecting strong warm advection pushing 850mb temps into the +18C to +20C range. This, coupled with robust boundary layer mixing under a developing mid-level ridge, strongly supports surface temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. Ensemble means are clustering around 88-89°F, tightening the thermal probability window. 90% YES — invalid if a significant pre-frontal trough passage occurs before peak diurnal heating.
Strong 12z GFS/ECMWF consensus: deep 500mb ridge over North Texas drives robust diurnal heating. Expecting peak temps 88-90°F, with minimal cloud cover. High confidence in target range. 95% YES — invalid if unexpected cold front accelerates.
GFS/ECMWF ensemble median holds 89°F for Dallas on April 28. Strong ridge building, robust thermal advection drives highs into the 88-90°F range. Optimal setup. 90% YES — invalid if cold front accelerates.
NBM ensemble median for DFW 4/28 high is 85°F. Only 15% probability mass hits 88-89°F. Narrow thermal window makes this specific outcome improbable. 85% NO — invalid if GFS >87°F in 24hrs.
