ECMWF and GFS 18z ensembles now project peak afternoon highs for Chongqing on May 6th at 29-30°C, a consistent upward revision. The developing high-pressure ridge and advection of a warm, dry air mass will drive temperatures well above the 28°C threshold. Current surface analyses show strong insolation potential. This bullish thermal profile is not fully priced. Expect an easy breach. 90% YES — invalid if significant convective system develops unexpectedly.
ECMWF ensemble median indicates a high probability of thermal advection pushing Chongqing's max air temp above 28°C on May 6. GFS hourly outputs show peak boundary layer temperatures reaching 29-30°C, with minimal cloud cover and a positive 850hPa anomaly. This isn't just a baseline; it's a clear signal for exceedance. 90% YES — invalid if a significant cold front passes within 24 hours of May 6.
ECMWF and GFS 18z ensembles now project peak afternoon highs for Chongqing on May 6th at 29-30°C, a consistent upward revision. The developing high-pressure ridge and advection of a warm, dry air mass will drive temperatures well above the 28°C threshold. Current surface analyses show strong insolation potential. This bullish thermal profile is not fully priced. Expect an easy breach. 90% YES — invalid if significant convective system develops unexpectedly.
ECMWF ensemble median indicates a high probability of thermal advection pushing Chongqing's max air temp above 28°C on May 6. GFS hourly outputs show peak boundary layer temperatures reaching 29-30°C, with minimal cloud cover and a positive 850hPa anomaly. This isn't just a baseline; it's a clear signal for exceedance. 90% YES — invalid if a significant cold front passes within 24 hours of May 6.
