Robust GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs for May 5 consistently forecast a dominant thermal ridge over the Sichuan Basin, driving significant adiabatic compression. Boundary layer warming, coupled with strong warm-air advection, elevates temperatures. Ensemble means for Chongqing hover around 33°C, but critical 90th percentile outliers frequently breach 35°C. This confluence strongly signals a high probability of exceeding the 34°C threshold.
Robust GFS and ECMWF deterministic runs for May 5 consistently forecast a dominant thermal ridge over the Sichuan Basin, driving significant adiabatic compression. Boundary layer warming, coupled with strong warm-air advection, elevates temperatures. Ensemble means for Chongqing hover around 33°C, but critical 90th percentile outliers frequently breach 35°C. This confluence strongly signals a high probability of exceeding the 34°C threshold.
