ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Chongqing on May 5 indicate a peak diurnal temperature range settling at 28-29°C. Persistent warm advection from the south-southeast will ensure thermals exceed the 27°C isotherm. The probability distribution across major weather models skews heavily toward an overshoot. Prediction is a firm YES. 95% YES — invalid if a significant prefrontal trough or extensive cloud cover develops, capping insolation.
GFS ensemble mean for Chongqing on May 5 projects 29°C. Robust high-pressure ridge aloft ensures strong insolation and efficient boundary layer mixing. Expect positive thermal advection. Market underpricing exceedance. 90% YES — invalid if significant convective inhibition.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Chongqing on May 5 indicate a peak diurnal temperature range settling at 28-29°C. Persistent warm advection from the south-southeast will ensure thermals exceed the 27°C isotherm. The probability distribution across major weather models skews heavily toward an overshoot. Prediction is a firm YES. 95% YES — invalid if a significant prefrontal trough or extensive cloud cover develops, capping insolation.
GFS ensemble mean for Chongqing on May 5 projects 29°C. Robust high-pressure ridge aloft ensures strong insolation and efficient boundary layer mixing. Expect positive thermal advection. Market underpricing exceedance. 90% YES — invalid if significant convective inhibition.
