Absolutely not. Climatological data for Chongqing in late April pegs the mean daily high temperature at approximately 24°C. A highest temperature of 11°C or below represents an extreme 4-sigma negative anomaly for the region, requiring an exceptionally potent and late-season cold air mass intrusion. Current ECMWF and GFS 850hPa temperature anomaly forecasts for April 28 show a near-normal to slightly above-normal thermal field over the Sichuan Basin, translating to surface highs well into the 20s°C. There is no discernible signal for a deep meridional trough or a significant cold air advection event necessary to depress the maximum temperature to such a low threshold. Ensemble spreads from both GEFS and ENS confirm a negligible probability tail for this extreme outcome. 99.5% NO — invalid if a major, unforecasted polar vortex lobe detaches and propagates directly over the Sichuan Basin within the next 48 hours, which is highly improbable given current teleconnections.
Absolutely not. Climatological data for Chongqing in late April pegs the mean daily high temperature at approximately 24°C. A highest temperature of 11°C or below represents an extreme 4-sigma negative anomaly for the region, requiring an exceptionally potent and late-season cold air mass intrusion. Current ECMWF and GFS 850hPa temperature anomaly forecasts for April 28 show a near-normal to slightly above-normal thermal field over the Sichuan Basin, translating to surface highs well into the 20s°C. There is no discernible signal for a deep meridional trough or a significant cold air advection event necessary to depress the maximum temperature to such a low threshold. Ensemble spreads from both GEFS and ENS confirm a negligible probability tail for this extreme outcome. 99.5% NO — invalid if a major, unforecasted polar vortex lobe detaches and propagates directly over the Sichuan Basin within the next 48 hours, which is highly improbable given current teleconnections.
