ECMWF 06z and NAM models project maximum surface temperatures of 54-55°F for ORD on May 6, driven by a post-frontal cool airmass and persistent northerly thermal advection. While GFS 12z hints at 56°F, the mesoscale consensus indicates this tight isotherm window is the most probable outcome. Synoptic patterns support a stable boundary layer limiting warmer advection. High conviction for the target range. 85% YES — invalid if a significant southerly wind shift occurs pre-noon.
ECMWF 06z and NAM models project maximum surface temperatures of 54-55°F for ORD on May 6, driven by a post-frontal cool airmass and persistent northerly thermal advection. While GFS 12z hints at 56°F, the mesoscale consensus indicates this tight isotherm window is the most probable outcome. Synoptic patterns support a stable boundary layer limiting warmer advection. High conviction for the target range. 85% YES — invalid if a significant southerly wind shift occurs pre-noon.
