Forecast models are strongly signaling a breach of the 32°C threshold for Chengdu on May 5. ECMWF operational runs consistently print highs in the 31-32°C range. The latest GFS ensembles show a tightening thermal gradient and robust warm advection pushing max temps even higher. The synoptic pattern, dominated by a strengthening subtropical ridge, provides ample subsidence and solar forcing. Expect significant surface heating. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden cold frontal passage occurs.
Forecast models are strongly signaling a breach of the 32°C threshold for Chengdu on May 5. ECMWF operational runs consistently print highs in the 31-32°C range. The latest GFS ensembles show a tightening thermal gradient and robust warm advection pushing max temps even higher. The synoptic pattern, dominated by a strengthening subtropical ridge, provides ample subsidence and solar forcing. Expect significant surface heating. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden cold frontal passage occurs.
