ECMWF and GFS ensembles show robust thermal ridge advection pushing surface temps past 30°C. Upper-level divergence supports strong insolation. Boundary layer heating is confirmed by 850hPa temps. 90% YES — invalid if unforecasted cold air advection occurs.
ECMWF ensemble guidance indicates robust thermal advection and a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Sichuan Basin by May 5. Sustained daytime insolation will maximize boundary layer heating. GFS operational runs consistently project peak daytime highs in Chengdu nearing 30-31°C, with minimal frontal interference. The current synoptic pattern strongly supports reaching the 31°C isotherm. 90% YES — invalid if an unanticipated cold air mass intrusion occurs.
ECMWF HRES and GFS ensemble mean show a persistent ridge, driving thermal advection. Chengdu highs on May 5 are consistently modeled 31-32°C. This strong synoptic forcing elevates temperatures. 95% YES — invalid if ridge breaks.
ECMWF and GFS ensembles show robust thermal ridge advection pushing surface temps past 30°C. Upper-level divergence supports strong insolation. Boundary layer heating is confirmed by 850hPa temps. 90% YES — invalid if unforecasted cold air advection occurs.
ECMWF ensemble guidance indicates robust thermal advection and a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Sichuan Basin by May 5. Sustained daytime insolation will maximize boundary layer heating. GFS operational runs consistently project peak daytime highs in Chengdu nearing 30-31°C, with minimal frontal interference. The current synoptic pattern strongly supports reaching the 31°C isotherm. 90% YES — invalid if an unanticipated cold air mass intrusion occurs.
ECMWF HRES and GFS ensemble mean show a persistent ridge, driving thermal advection. Chengdu highs on May 5 are consistently modeled 31-32°C. This strong synoptic forcing elevates temperatures. 95% YES — invalid if ridge breaks.
