Robust GFS and ECMWF ensembles project a significant thermal anomaly for Chengdu on May 5. A persistent ridge system is consolidating, driving strong warm air advection. Current model runs indicate an 80% probability of peak temperatures hitting 30-32°C. This synoptic pattern strongly favors exceeding the 29°C threshold, presenting a clear upside signal. 90% YES — invalid if a significant cold front passage occurs before May 4.
Robust GFS and ECMWF ensembles project a significant thermal anomaly for Chengdu on May 5. A persistent ridge system is consolidating, driving strong warm air advection. Current model runs indicate an 80% probability of peak temperatures hitting 30-32°C. This synoptic pattern strongly favors exceeding the 29°C threshold, presenting a clear upside signal. 90% YES — invalid if a significant cold front passage occurs before May 4.
