Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs firmly project Chengdu's April 29 peak temperature to hit 24-26°C, significantly above the 21°C threshold. Historical climatological data for this period also indicates a strong bias towards highs in the 23-25°C range. No anomalous cold advection or significant synoptic shifts are indicated to depress temperatures this low. This is a clear miss. 95% NO — invalid if a major Siberian high intrusion occurs.
Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs firmly project Chengdu's April 29 peak temperature to hit 24-26°C, significantly above the 21°C threshold. Historical climatological data for this period also indicates a strong bias towards highs in the 23-25°C range. No anomalous cold advection or significant synoptic shifts are indicated to depress temperatures this low. This is a clear miss. 95% NO — invalid if a major Siberian high intrusion occurs.
