NWP model consensus across ECMWF and GFS ensembles for Chengdu on April 29th consistently projects daily highs significantly above the 18°C threshold. Mean forecast values cluster around 23-24°C. Robust southerly thermal advection within a strengthening high-pressure ridge ensures warm sector dominance. There are no synoptic indications of cold air mass penetration or sufficient radiative cooling to bring temperatures down to 18°C or below. 90% NO — invalid if a sudden upper-level trough re-establishes.
NWP model consensus across ECMWF and GFS ensembles for Chengdu on April 29th consistently projects daily highs significantly above the 18°C threshold. Mean forecast values cluster around 23-24°C. Robust southerly thermal advection within a strengthening high-pressure ridge ensures warm sector dominance. There are no synoptic indications of cold air mass penetration or sufficient radiative cooling to bring temperatures down to 18°C or below. 90% NO — invalid if a sudden upper-level trough re-establishes.
