GFS and ECMWF ensemble means for Chengdu on April 28 consistently project high temperatures well above 20°C. Dominant upper-level ridging coupled with robust southerly thermal advection is driving a significant warm air mass into the region. Specific model outputs cluster around 25-27°C, indicating strong confidence in surpassing the threshold. This clear synoptic pattern signals a definitive 'yes'. 95% YES — invalid if a sudden, unforecasted cold front passage occurs.
GFS and ECMWF ensemble means for Chengdu on April 28 consistently project high temperatures well above 20°C. Dominant upper-level ridging coupled with robust southerly thermal advection is driving a significant warm air mass into the region. Specific model outputs cluster around 25-27°C, indicating strong confidence in surpassing the threshold. This clear synoptic pattern signals a definitive 'yes'. 95% YES — invalid if a sudden, unforecasted cold front passage occurs.
