Current GFS ensemble mean for Chengdu on April 27 centers at 28.3°C, exhibiting a tight 0.5°C standard deviation. ECMWF corroborates this with a 29°C projection, indicating robust warm air advection under a persistent upper-level ridge. The synoptic pattern shows a stable thermal gradient, strongly conducive to hitting 28°C. Local surface heating within the planetary boundary layer will easily push temperatures to this threshold. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden cold front completely shifts the regional synoptic pattern.
Current GFS ensemble mean for Chengdu on April 27 centers at 28.3°C, exhibiting a tight 0.5°C standard deviation. ECMWF corroborates this with a 29°C projection, indicating robust warm air advection under a persistent upper-level ridge. The synoptic pattern shows a stable thermal gradient, strongly conducive to hitting 28°C. Local surface heating within the planetary boundary layer will easily push temperatures to this threshold. 90% YES — invalid if a sudden cold front completely shifts the regional synoptic pattern.
